- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.65-33.66 this morning supportive level at 33.60 resistance level at 33.80
- SET Index: 1,173.8 (+1.2%), 14 Mar 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,638.9 (+2.1%), 14 Mar 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.15 (-1.37 bps), 14 Mar 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.31 (+4.0 bps), 14 Mar 2025
- US consumer sentiment drops, inflation expectations rise due to tariffs
- US Senate passes bill to avert shutdown
- CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens agree on the debt deal
- Japan unions achieve biggest pay raise in 30 years
- The US Dollar ended the week weaker after a surprising Michigan report
US consumer sentiment drops, inflation expectations rise due to tariffs
The University of Michigan's March preliminary report showed disappointing results, with headline sentiment dropping to 57.9, below expectations of 63.1 and the previous 64.7. Both the current conditions and consumer expectations indices also missed expectations, falling to 63.5 and 54.2, respectively. Consumers cited uncertainty around policies and economic factors as key concerns, with frequent policy shifts making future planning difficult. Regarding inflation expectations, the 1-year ahead forecast rose to 4.9% from 4.3%, marking the highest level since November 2022, while the 5-year expectation increased to 3.9% from 3.5%.
US Senate passes bill to avert shutdown
The U.S. Senate passed a stopgap spending bill on Friday, avoiding a partial government shutdown after Democrats backed down over President Trump's federal workforce cuts. Despite his opposition, Senate Minority Leader Schumer supported the bill to prevent a shutdown. The Senate approved it 54-46, sending it to Trump for signing. The Republican-controlled House had earlier passed the measure, which maintains spending at $6.75 trillion for the fiscal year ending September 30.
CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens agree on the debt deal
The CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens have reached an agreement on fiscal reform. While there are minor adjustments to the package originally proposed by Merz, the overall measures remain largely unchanged, making the package significant. The bill is scheduled for a vote in the Bundestag on March 18th, and with support from the three parties, it is expected to meet the two-thirds requirement for constitutional reform. However, there are still potential obstacles to overcome.
Japan unions achieve biggest pay raise in 30 years
Japan’s largest labor union group reported the highest pay increase in over 30 years, with workers securing an average 5.46% wage hike in ongoing negotiations. This surpasses last year’s 5.28% and is the largest since 1991. Nonetheless, member unions demanded an average wage increase of 6.09% this year, up from last year’s 5.85%, and seeking more than 6% for the first time in more than three decades.
The US Dollar ended the week weaker after a surprising Michigan report
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.125, -1.37 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 2.13, -1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.31, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.67, moving in a range of 33.65 – 33.66 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.60 – 33.80 today. The Dollar Index dipped slightly on Friday but ended the week flat, driven by tariff uncertainty and US growth concerns, with a weak University of Michigan report adding to the negative sentiment. There was little Trump tariff talk, but next week brings key events like the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The index traded between 103.560 and 104.090, closing near 103.75. The euro gained slightly due to German fiscal reforms, while ECB hawk Holzmann supported keeping rates unchanged. EUR/USD peaked at 1.0912, near the YTD high. The yen lagged, affected by positive risk sentiment and weaker wage data, with USD/JPY hitting 149.02. The BoJ is expected to keep rates at 0.50%, with a 92% market probability.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
