- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.715-31.73 this morning, supportive level at 31.65 resistance level at 31.85
- SET Index: 1,288.0 (+0.8%), 11 Sep 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,587.5 (+0.85%), 11 Sep 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.292 (+3.47 bps), 11 Sep 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.01 (-3.0 bps), 11 Sep 2025
- August US CPI came in largely as expected
- US initial jobless claims rise, exceeding forecasts
- ECB holds rates steady, in line with expectations
- Dollar weakened on soft US labor data
August US CPI came in largely as expected
In August, US CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month, outpacing the 0.3% forecast and accelerating from July’s 0.2% increase. This pushed the annual inflation rate to 2.9%, up from 2.7%, and broadly in line with expectations. Meanwhile, core CPI increased 0.3% on the month, matching both the prior reading and consensus, with the year-over-year rate holding steady at 3.1%. The “super core” measure — core services excluding housing — also remained unchanged at 3.2% year-over-year. Looking into the details, core goods prices rose 0.28%, the largest monthly gain since May 2023, driven by new and used vehicles, along with apparel and audio/video equipment. Meanwhile, tariff-exempt goods such as cellphones and prescription drugs continued to decline in price.
US initial jobless claims rise, exceeding forecasts
Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000 in the week ending September 6th — the highest since October 2021 — up from 236,000 and well above the 235,000 forecast. The increase, which coincided with the Labor Day holiday, may reflect seasonal distortions. Texas was the main contributor to the jump in non-seasonally adjusted claims (+15,304), though economists noted no clear cause, as WARN notices—which typically lead such moves—showed only a modest rise in July. Seasonal models had expected a decline, making the spike more surprising. The four-week average rose to 240,500, while continued claims held steady at 1.939 million, slightly below estimates. The data adds to concerns about a cooling labor market, following weak July and August NFP reports and BLS revisions showing payrolls were overstated by 911,000 jobs through March 2025.
ECB holds rates steady, in line with expectations
The ECB held rates steady, as expected, keeping the Marginal Lending Rate at 2.40%, Refinancing Rate at 2.15%, and Deposit Rate at 2.00%. The statement noted that the inflation outlook remains broadly unchanged, mirroring the June assessment, and reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment to a set rate path. Lagarde said the decision was unanimous, adding that growth risks are now more balanced (previously tilted to the downside), and that the disinflationary process is over, though inflation hasn’t fully reached target. She also emphasized that minor deviations from the 2% goal won’t automatically trigger policy changes and noted that bond markets remain orderly and QT is proceeding smoothly.
Dollar weakened on soft US labor data
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.292, +3.47 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.270, +3.25 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.01, -3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.81, moving in a range of 31.715 – 31.73 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.65 – 31.85 today. The dollar came under pressure following a softer-than-expected labor print, as initial jobless claims topped forecasts, prompting markets to raise Fed rate cut pricing to 73bps by year-end (up from 68bps). Meanwhile, CPI data came in broadly in line, offering little offset. The euro firmed amid broad dollar weakness and the ECB’s policy decision, which held rates steady as expected. President Lagarde struck a more balanced tone on growth risks, shifting from a downside bias, and noted the disinflation process has ended, suggesting policy remains well calibrated. The Japanese yen was initially choppy following the US data but ended the session stronger, benefiting from the broader dollar softness.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
