- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.66-31.72 this morning, supportive level at 31.65 resistance level at 31.85
- SET Index: 1,308.2 (+0.6%), 16 Sep 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,606.8 (-0.13%), 16 Sep 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.491 (-2.65 bps), 16 Sep 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.04 (-1.0 bps), 16 Sep 2025
- US retail sales top estimates, underscoring consumer resilience
- US industrial production rebounds, beats forecasts
- Japan exports fall again, driven by steep US decline
- UK jobs market past worst leaves BOE on track to hold rates
- Dollar softens ahead of the FOMC
US retail sales top estimates, underscoring consumer resilience
US retail sales beat expectations across the board in August. Headline sales rose 0.6% M/M, matching the prior print, while ex-autos climbed 0.7%. Ex-gas/autos also jumped to 0.7% from 0.3%, and retail control came in at 0.7%, ahead of the 0.4% consensus. Nine out of 13 categories posted increases, led by online retailers, clothing stores and sporting goods, likely reflecting back-to-school shopping. Motor vehicle sales rose at a slower pace, even though some economists expected it to be a drag on the overall figure.
US industrial production rebounds, beats forecasts
US industrial production rose 0.1% in August, beating expectations for a 0.1% decline, though July was revised lower to -0.4%. Manufacturing output posted a 0.2% gain, with upward momentum driven by a 2.6% jump in auto production, while other factory output rose just 0.1%. Mining rose 0.9%, but utilities fell 2.0%. Capacity Utilization held steady at 77.4%, as expected, though the prior was revised down slightly.
Japan exports fall again, driven by steep US decline
Japan’s exports declined for a fourth straight month in August, slipping 0.1% YoY, as U.S. tariffs and global trade tensions weighed on demand, particularly for cars and steel. Shipments to the U.S. dropped 13.8%, the steepest fall in over four years, while exports to China dipped 0.5% and exports to Europe rose 5.5%. Imports fell 5.2%, deeper than the expected 4.1% decline, leaving Japan with a ¥242.5bn ($1.7bn) trade deficit.
UK jobs market past worst leaves BOE on track to hold rates
The UK labour market shows signs of stabilising after a prolonged slump driven by higher taxes. Payrolls fell by 8,000 in August, a smaller drop than expected, marking the seventh straight decline, though recent data suggests job losses since last October’s budget were less severe than initially feared. Unemployment held at a four-year high of 4.7%, while wage growth excluding bonuses eased to 4.8%, a three-year low. Private sector pay slowed to 4.7%, still well above the Bank of England’s 3% threshold consistent with its 2% inflation target.
Dollar softens ahead of the FOMC
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.491, -2.65 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.460, -4.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.04, -1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.74, moving in a range of 31.66 – 31.72 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.65 – 31.85 today. The dollar softened ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC, with index breaking below 97.00 despite upside surprises in US retail sales and industrial production. The euro benefited from the dollar’s decline, as EUR/USD held firm above 1.1800 and reached a fresh year-to-date high. The British pound firmed modestly on strong employment data, though upside was limited with cyclical FX lagging and UK CPI in focus. The Japanese yen also strengthened, with USD/JPY dropping below 147.00 as dollar softness persisted.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
