- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.82-34.88 this morning supportive level at 34.70 resistance level at 35.00
- SET Index: 1,445.1 (-0.79%), 12 Nov 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,984.0 (-0.29%), 12 Nov 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.435 (-0.49 bps), 12 Nov 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.43 (+13.0 bps), 12 Nov 2024
- US Inflation Expectations dip, Fed survey shows
- UK wage growth slows modestly, supporting BOE caution
- Australia's wage growth slows, reflecting easing price pressures
- China plans to slash homebuying taxes in fiscal stimulus
- The dollar extends its gains, rising to near a 5-month high
US Inflation Expectations dip, Fed survey shows
The NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a slight dip in one-year inflation expectations to 2.9% in October from 3.0% in September, and a decrease in five-year expectations to 2.8% from 2.9%. However, three-year expectations rose to 2.5% from 2.3%. The survey, conducted throughout October, likely doesn't reflect the latest US election outcome. On a positive note, consumers reported a lower likelihood of missing debt payments, a reduced chance of a rise in unemployment, and improved job security. Home price growth expectations remained steady at 3.0%. Next month's survey will better capture consumer sentiment in response to the election.
UK wage growth slows modestly, supporting BOE caution
UK wage growth slowed less than anticipated, strengthening the argument for the Bank of England to proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts. Average earnings, excluding bonuses, increased by 4.8% in the three months leading up to September compared to the same period last year, only slightly lower than the previous 4.9%. Although this was the smallest rise since mid-2022, economists had expected a drop to 4.7%. At the same time, the labor market is overall easing but remains relatively tight by historical standards. Unemployment climbed to 4.3% from 4%, a larger increase than expected, though officials are cautious about drawing conclusions due to issues with response rates in the survey.
Australia's wage growth slows, reflecting easing price pressures
Australia's wage growth slowed in Q3, with the wage price index rising 3.5% annually, down from 4.1% in Q2 and slightly below the 3.6% forecast. Quarterly growth was 0.8%, just under expectations, reflecting easing price pressures and supporting expectations for a rate cut.
China plans to slash homebuying taxes in fiscal stimulus
Bloomberg reports that China is set to reduce taxes on home purchases as part of efforts to stimulate its sluggish housing market. Authorities are drafting a plan that would allow major cities like Shanghai and Beijing to lower the deed tax for buyers to as little as 1%, down from the current rate of up to 3%. If implemented, this change would lower home buying costs and help boost property sales.
The dollar extends its gains, rising to near a 5-month high
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.435, -0.49 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.42, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.43, +13.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.73, moving in a range of 34.82 – 34.88 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.70 – 35.00 today. The dollar continued to strengthen, driven by rising yields, pushing the index briefly above 106.00, its highest level since May. Despite several comments from Fed officials, there was little impact on market movements, with attention now shifting to the US CPI report. The euro faced pressure from the stronger dollar, with EUR/USD testing the 1.0600 level before finding support and rebounding. The Japanese yen also remained under pressure as US yields climbed, pushing USD/JPY close to 155.00, where it stalled and retraced some gains.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
