- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.665-33.725 this morning supportive level at 33.60 resistance level at 33.80
- SET Index: 1,202.0 (+1.0%), 7 Mar 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,770.2 (+0.55%), 7 Mar 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.192 (-2.53 bps), 7 Mar 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.32 (+3.0 bps), 7 Mar 2025
- US jobs report indicates a weakening in the labor market
- China's inflation falls below zero for the first time in a year
- China reached a record $540 billion in exports, driven by a tariff rush
- Thailand's February inflation stayed within the central bank's target
- Dollar hits four-month low on growth concerns
US jobs report indicates a weakening in the labor market
The headline NFP increased by 151k in February, falling short of the expected 160k, while the previous month's figure was revised down to 125k from 143k, resulting in a two-month net revision of -2k compared to the previous +100k. The data suggests that job growth wasn't as weak as initially feared, but significant uncertainty remains due to potential government job cuts from the DOGE. The rest of the report was weak. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4.0%, despite expectations for it to stay the same, though it remains below the year-end Fed forecast of 4.3%, which will be updated in March. Wage growth aligned with expectations but showed a decline in the revised figures from the previous month.
China's inflation falls below zero for the first time in a year
China's consumer inflation dropped more than expected, falling below zero for the first time in 13 months, signaling deflationary pressures. The CPI declined 0.7% year-on-year, compared to a 0.5% increase last month, lower than the predicted 0.4% drop. Core CPI also fell 0.1%, marking its first decline since 2021. PPI deflation continued for the 29th month.
China reached a record $540 billion in exports, driven by a tariff rush
China's exports reached a record $540 billion in the first two months of the year, driven by frontloading amid higher US tariffs. Exports rose 2.3%, while imports fell 8.4%, resulting in a record trade surplus of nearly $171 billion. Exports to the US totaled $76 billion, the highest in three years, though still lower than in 2022, when the pandemic spiked trade.
Thailand's February inflation stayed within the central bank's target
Thailand’s inflation rate in February slowed, as expected, and stayed within the central bank's target range for the third consecutive month. The headline CPI rose 1.08% year-on-year, close to the forecasted 1.10%, following a 1.32% increase in January. The slower inflation was mainly due to lower food, beverage, and oil prices. The core CPI rose 0.99%, slightly above the expected 0.90%. The commerce ministry projected that March’s inflation would be similar to February’s, with first-quarter inflation expected to range from 1.1% to 1.2%. The rate is expected to fall to around 0.5% in the second quarter due to last year’s high base. The ministry kept its 2025 inflation forecast at 0.3% to 1.3%, following a 0.40% rate in 2024.
Dollar hits four-month low on growth concerns
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.192, -2.53 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 2.19, -3.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.32, +3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.75, moving in a range of 33.665 – 33.725 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.60 – 33.80 today. The dollar showed mixed performance against major currencies, with the dollar index experiencing its largest weekly decline since November 2022, largely due to euro strength. The index dropped to a session low of 103.46 following the February NFP report. G10FX price action was generally higher, with the euro continuing to outperform, supported by optimism around Europe and Germany's recent investment plans. Meanwhile, USD/JPY saw a slight rise to around 148.00 before the weekend, though its weekly downtrend remains intact.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
