- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.58-33.59 this morning supportive level at 33.55 resistance level at 33.75
- SET Index: 1,170.2 (-0.3%), 17 Mar 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,675.1 (+0.6%), 17 Mar 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.130 (+0.49 bps), 17 Mar 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.31 (+0.0 bps), 17 Mar 2025
- US retail sales increase less than expected following January decline
- New York factory activity drops at the fastest pace in a year
- China's economic recovery extended into the Jan-Feb period
- China home prices fall at faster pace despite revival effort
- The US dollar struggled ahead of a busy week
US retail sales increase less than expected following January decline
US retail sales in February rose by 0.2%, below expectations, with the prior month's data revised down, signaling concerns over consumer spending. Seven out of the 13 categories in the report saw declines, particularly motor vehicles, which were expected to recover from a weak January. Sales of gasoline, electronics, and apparel also decreased. Spending at restaurants and bars, the only service sector included in the report, experienced the largest drop in a year. On the positive side, control-group sales increased 1% in February, reversing the prior month’s drop and beat the 0.4% forecast.
New York factory activity drops at the fastest pace in a year
New York state manufacturing activity fell in March to its lowest since early 2024, with prices rising as expected due to tariffs. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s manufacturing index dropped nearly 26 points to -20, while new orders slumped the most since May 2023. Shipments, headcount, and workweek length all contracted faster than the previous month. The decline signals policy uncertainty affecting the struggling sector. Meanwhile, price indices for goods paid and received hit their highest levels since 2023.
China's economic recovery extended into the Jan-Feb period
Chinese industrial production rose 5.9% in Jan-Feb 2025, surpassing expectations, as Beijing's support helped local producers amid trade tensions. Retail sales grew 4.0%, in line with forecasts, thanks to stimulus measures targeting consumer spending. Notably, subsidies on essential goods and consumer electronics were key initiatives to stimulate private consumption. Meanwhile, fixed asset investment increased by 4.1%, exceeding the 3.2% forecast.
China home prices fall at faster pace despite revival effort
China’s new-home prices declined at a faster rate in February, marking the first worsening in six months despite recent government efforts to support the market. Prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, dropped by 0.14% from January. Used-home values fell by 0.34%, matching the previous month’s decline. In a concerning sign, used-home prices in top-tier cities decreased by 0.1% from January, the first decline since the government launched a significant stimulus package last September.
The US dollar struggled ahead of a busy week
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.130, +0.49 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 2.14, +1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.31, +0.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.65, moving in a range of 33.58 – 33.59 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.55 – 33.75 today. The US dollar weakened at the start of the week, driven by a risk-on sentiment and the anticipation of several key events, including the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The latest data was mixed: retail sales fell short of expectations on the headline, but the control group showed strength, which is important for GDP; the NY Fed Manufacturing report was disappointing. The euro gained from the weakness of the dollar and rose back to the 1.0900 level, in a day with no major currency-specific news. The Japanese yen underperformed against the U.S. dollar, lagging as the safe-haven currency struggled in the risk-on environment.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
