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Daily Market Insight: 19 March 2025

19 มี.ค. 2568
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 33.63-33.64 this morning supportive level at 33.55 resistance level at 33.75
  • SET Index: 1,176.2 (+0.5%), 18 Mar 2025
  • S&P 500 Index: 5,614.7 (-1.1%), 18 Mar 2025
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.133 (+0.28 bps), 18 Mar 2025
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 4.29 (-2.0 bps), 18 Mar 2025

 

  • Putin negotiates Trump’s ceasefire call
  • US industrial production rises, driven by autos
  • German investor outlook jumps to highest level since 2022
  • Japan’s exports rise at faster clip before Trump tariffs hit
  • Thailand plans to cut visa-free stays to 30 days
  • Dollar falls ahead of Fed meeting

 

Putin negotiates Trump’s ceasefire call

Vladimir Putin rejected Donald Trump's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, opting instead to only restrict attacks on the country's energy infrastructure. He also insisted on stopping the flow of weapons and intelligence to Kyiv. In response, Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that the move demonstrated Russia's unwillingness to pursue peace.

 

US industrial production rises, driven by autos

Industrial Production rose 0.7% in February, exceeding expectations of 0.2%, after a revised 0.3% gain in January. Manufacturing output grew by 0.9%, driven by motor vehicles and parts, though it remains below the 2024 average. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing increased by 0.4%. Mining output rose 2.8%, while utility output fell 2.5%, with electric and natural utilities down 1.2% and 11.1%. Capacity Utilization was 78.2%. Looking ahead, challenges are expected due to the impact of tariffs.

 

German investor outlook jumps to highest level since 2022

Investor confidence in Germany’s economy jumped to its highest level in more than two years as the country gears up for major infrastructure and military investments under its new government. The ZEW institute’s expectations index rose to 51.6 in March from 26 the month before, reaching the highest point since February 2022 and surpassing the market estimate of 48.3. A measure of current conditions also increased, though less than anticipated.

 

Japan’s exports rise at faster clip before Trump tariffs hit

The value of exports increased by 11.4% in February compared to the same month last year. This was slightly below the expected 12.6% rise. Meanwhile, imports declined by 0.7%, slightly better than the expected 0.8% increase.

 

Thailand plans to cut visa-free stays to 30 days

Thailand is set to reduce the duration of visa-free stays for foreign tourists from 60 days to 30 days in response to concerns about travelers abusing the system to engage in illegal activities. Since July 2024, citizens of 93 countries have been permitted to visit Thailand for tourism for up to 60 days.

 

Dollar falls ahead of Fed meeting

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.133, +0.28 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 2.13, -1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.29, -2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.60, moving in a range of 33.63 – 33.64 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.55 – 33.75 today. The dollar weakened, dropping to a low of 103.190, despite stronger-than-expected data. Treasury Secretary Bessent remarked that reciprocal tariffs wouldn’t automatically be set at 25% each, and the April 2nd tariff rates might be lower for some countries. Meanwhile, attention in the U.S. shifted toward Wednesday's FOMC announcement. The euro saw mild gains after Germany's Bundestag passed the fiscal reform package, though the day remained volatile. The Japanese yen weakened but recovered from its worst levels as USD/JPY pulled back from near 150.00 ahead of today’s BoJ policy announcement.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC