- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.92-33.965 this morning supportive level at 33.85 resistance level at 34.10
- SET Index: 1,186.6 (+0.4%), 21 Mar 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,667.6 (+0.1%), 21 Mar 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.044 (-1.91 bps), 21 Mar 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.25 (+1.0 bps), 21 Mar 2025
- Fed officials follow Powell, downplay rising price expectations
- Japan’s factory decline deepens, services weaken
- Thai exports topped forecasts in February, but US trade uncertainty clouds the outlook
- Thailand offers loan guarantee to support struggling auto sector
- The dollar strengthens as markets digest the Fed’s decision
Fed officials follow Powell, downplay rising price expectations
On Friday, Fed officials John Williams and Austan Goolsbee echoed Jerome Powell’s recent comments, downplaying the rise in long-term inflation expectations while stressing uncertainty. Both noted a strong labor market and growth, suggesting tariff impacts may be temporary. Williams also emphasized the uncertain effects of changes in immigration, trade, and fiscal policies but reaffirmed that current monetary policy is appropriate. Meanwhile, Goolsbee also called tariff impacts potentially transitory, echoing Powell's earlier remarks.
Japan’s factory decline deepens, services weaken
Japan’s factory activity dropped at the fastest rate in a year in March, due to declines in production and new orders, signaling concerns for the economy. The flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 48.3 in March, its lowest in a year, from 49.0 in February. At the same time, the flash service sector contracted to 49.5 in March from 53.7 in February, marking the first decline in five months. The overall business outlook dropped to its lowest point since August 2020, with companies expressing concerns over rising costs, labor shortages, and uncertainties in the global trade environment.
Thai exports topped forecasts in February, but US trade uncertainty clouds the outlook
Thailand's exports grew for the eighth consecutive month in February, exceeding expectations, though uncertainty surrounding US trade policy is dampening the outlook for the rest of the year. Exports surged by 14.0% in February compared to the previous year, surpassing the predicted 9.7% increase and following a 13.6% rise in January. Meanwhile, imports grew by 4% year-on-year, which was below the expected 4.8% rise, resulting in a trade surplus of $2 billion for the month, much higher than the forecasted $0.7 billion surplus.
Thailand offers loan guarantee to support struggling auto sector
Thailand is offering a 5 billion baht loan guarantee for pickup trucks to revive its struggling auto sector, which saw production hit a four-year low. The seven-year program aims to boost sales by 6,250 units by encouraging financial institutions to provide loans.
The dollar strengthens as markets digest the Fed’s decision
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.044, -1.91 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 2.04, -1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.25, +1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.84, moving in a range of 33.92 – 33.965 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.85 – 34.10 today. The dollar's rally continued into the weekend, marking the DXY’s third straight day of gains, closing just above 104. Despite a lack of significant US data, the upward movement persisted. Williams and Goolsbee both highlighted the uncertainty of the current situation, with the Fed adopting a wait-and-see approach, and Williams noting there's no rush for the next policy decision. US data will return next week, including Durable Goods, Final Q4 GDP growth, and PCE. On Friday, G10 currencies generally weakened as dollar strength dominated, with EUR/USD closing around 1.0820, nearing downside DMAs.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
