- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.70-32.78 this morning supportive level at 32.65 resistance level at 32.90
- SET Index: 1,094.6 (-1.7%), 18 June 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,980.9 (-0.03%), 18 June 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.68 (-1.32 bps), 18 June 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.38 (-1.0 bps), 18 June 2025
- Fed holds key rate steady, still sees two more cuts this year
- Trump concludes meeting, Iran strategy still unknown
- UK inflation holds at highest in over a year before BOE vote
- Thai exports hit 3-year high amid tariff talks
- Indonesia holds rate to protect rupiah amid risks
- Dollar firmed after Fed Chair Powell’s press conference
Fed holds key rate steady, still sees two more cuts this year
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.25–4.5%, as expected. The 2025 median dot plot remained at 3.9%, implying two 25bps rate cuts this year. However, the outlook for 2026 and 2027 was revised higher, with the 2026 median rate rising to 3.6% and 2027 to 3.4%. Meanwhile, the statement noted that uncertainty has “diminished but remains elevated,” softening its prior view. It also dropped its warning on stagflation risks, though higher inflation and slower growth still point to lingering concerns. At the conference, Powell maintained a cautious, wait-and-see stance, noting that projections are uncertain and not a fixed plan.
Trump concludes meeting, Iran strategy still unknown
President Trump met with advisers to discuss joining the Israel-Iran conflict but gave no clear decision. He remains firm against Iran’s nuclear ambitions and said Iran offered talks. Tensions rise as missile strikes continue and the US considers possible military action soon. Meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed President Donald Trump’s calls for full surrender and warned of “irreparable damage” if the US collaborates with Israel in bombing Iran.
UK inflation holds at highest in over a year before BOE vote
UK inflation stayed at 3.4% in May, driven by the fastest food price rise since early 2024. A previous April rate of 3.5% was revised down due to an error in vehicle tax data. Meanwhile, services inflation fell to 4.7% from 5.4%, matching BOE forecasts. The Bank is weighing energy market turmoil, rising oil prices, and a cooling economy as it considers rate cuts.
Thai exports hit 3-year high amid tariff talks
Thailand’s exports surged 18.4% in May to a record $31B, the biggest jump since March 2022, as firms stockpiled ahead of possible tariffs. Imports rose 18% to $29.9B, creating a $1.1B trade surplus. Thailand posted a $4.6B surplus with the US and a $4.1B deficit with China. Talks with the US to reduce a proposed 36% tariff are underway, with a proposal due Friday.
Indonesia holds rate to protect rupiah amid risks
Bank Indonesia kept its BI-Rate at 5.5% to support the rupiah amid global tensions. Governor Perry Warjiyo said the decision aims to maintain inflation and currency stability, with possible easing in Q3 pending clearer global conditions.
Dollar firmed after Fed Chair Powell’s press conference
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.68, -1.32 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.70, -1.03 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.38, -1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.59, moving in a range of 32.70 – 32.78 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.65 – 32.90 today. The Dollar firmed after Fed Chair Powell’s press conference, while uncertainty lingered over US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict following remarks by President Trump. Separately, US data showed sticky jobless claims, with initial claims at 245k and continued claims falling less than expected. Housing data also disappointed. Meanwhile, G10 FX was mixed on Wednesday, with GBP, CAD, and CHF weaker, while the Antipodean currencies and JPY outperformed.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
