- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.515-32.54 this morning supportive level at 32.40 resistance level at 32.70
- SET Index: 1,106.7 (-0.1%), 26 June 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,141.0 (+0.80%), 26 June 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.614 (-4.33 bps), 26 June 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.26 (-3.0 bps), 26 June 2025
- Q1 GDP contracts further than expected
- Most Fed officials oppose July rate cut
- Von Der Leyen says EU prepared for breakdown in US trade talks
- Tokyo inflation slows as energy prices ease before election
- Dollar falls as Trump challenges Powell
Q1 GDP contracts further than expected
Q1 GDP was revised down to 0.5 percent below the 0.2 percent forecast, with GDP sales also falling to 3.1 percent. Inflation measures rose slightly, with core PCE at 3.5 percent. Consumer spending was cut sharply to 0.5 percent from 1.2 percent. While the data raises concerns about stagflation, it is backward looking and likely distorted by pre-tariff front-loading.
Most Fed officials oppose July rate cut
Fed officials, including Chair Powell, want more time to see if tariffs will cause lasting inflation. Some, like Daly and Collins, expect a possible rate cut in fall but not in July. Others, such as Barkin and Goolsbee, urge caution due to economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, WSJ reports Trump may speed up naming Powell’s successor this summer or fall to influence markets before Powell’s term ends in 2026.
Von Der Leyen says EU prepared for breakdown in US trade talks
The EU is preparing for all outcomes in US trade talks, including a breakdown, while reviewing the latest US tariff offer. With a July 9 deadline before tariffs on most EU exports rise to 50%, some member states push for a quick deal, others oppose an uneven agreement. The EU is negotiating tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and key sectors, aiming for a fair deal and ready to respond with countermeasures.
Tokyo inflation slows as energy prices ease before election
Tokyo’s inflation slowed for the first time in four months, with consumer prices excluding fresh food rising 3.1% year-on-year in June, below the 3.3% forecast. The slowdown was driven by easing energy costs and a municipal waiver on some water charges ahead of a national election. Headline inflation also eased to 3.1% from 3.4% in May.
Dollar falls as Trump challenges Powell
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.614, -4.33 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.618, -4.78 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.26, -3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.41, moving in a range of 32.515 – 32.54 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.40 – 32.70 today. The US dollar weakened, and Treasury yields declined following a WSJ report that President Trump may announce a successor to Fed Chair Powell sooner than expected—possibly as early as this summer, or by October. Looking back at the data, Q1 PCE beat expectations, but GDP fell more than forecast. Jobless claims dropped to 236k, mostly due to seasonal factors. Durable goods spiked on Boeing orders. The May goods trade deficit widened on weaker exports. All eyes now turn to May PCE on Friday. G10 currencies strengthened broadly on the back of dollar weakness. EUR/USD traded in a 1.1655–1.1744 range. Meanwhile, safe-haven currencies like the CHF and JPY also gained as falling US yields supported the case for a more dovish Fed.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
