- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.41-32.43 this morning supportive level at 32.30 resistance level at 32.60
- SET Index: 1,089.6 (+0.7%), 30 June 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,205.0 (+0.52%), 30 June 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.5995 (-0.01 bps), 30 June 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.24 (-5.0 bps), 30 June 2025
- Trade talks have returned to the main topic
- Chicago PMI still indicates manufacturing contraction
- German inflation cools to 2%, matching ECB target
- Japan’s industrial production misses expectations due to US tariffs
- Mixed Chinese PMIs in June
- The dollar weakened at the start of the week
Trade talks have returned to the main topic
President Trump threatened new tariffs on Japan over its reluctance to import US rice. In contrast, Trump has been less warm toward the EU, which is sending a delegation to Washington this week to advance trade talks. The EU is reportedly open to a universal 10% tariff but is seeking quotas and exemptions in return. Meanwhile, Canada dropped its digital services tax to restart US trade talks, aiming for a deal by July 21.
Chicago PMI still indicates manufacturing contraction
The Chicago PMI came in at 40.4 in June, below the expected 42.7, signaling continued contraction in the region’s manufacturing sector, though at a slightly slower pace than before.
German inflation cools to 2%, matching ECB target
German inflation unexpectedly fell to 2% from 2.1%, meeting the ECB’s target and beating forecasts of 2.2%. This supports the ECB’s view that inflation is under control, likely prompting a pause in rate cuts despite ongoing economic uncertainty. In addition, German retail sales dropped unexpectedly by 1.6% in May compared to the previous month.
Japan’s industrial production misses expectations due to US tariffs
Japan’s industrial production rose 0.5% in May, below the expected 3.5%, as US tariffs weighed on exports . The tariffs cloud the outlook ahead of the July 20 election, with the Bank of Japan closely watching before adjusting policies.
Mixed Chinese PMIs in June
The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, slightly above the expected 49.6 and up from 49.5 in May, but still in contraction territory despite the US-China trade truce. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI grew faster than expected, rising to 50.5 in June compared to the forecasted 50.3. Local services demand picked up in May and June, supported by government stimulus and regional holidays. Overall, the composite PMI increased to 50.7 in June from 50.4 in May.
The dollar weakened at the start of the week
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.5995, -0.01 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.6098, -0.03 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.24, -5.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.53, moving in a range of 32.41 – 32.43 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.30 – 32.60 today. The dollar index weakened at the start of the week, falling to 96.85 amid light newsflow and quarter-end flows in a holiday-shortened week. During the US session, the index weighed down by a poor Chicago PMI and uncertainty around the upcoming vote on Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” along with ongoing trade developments and his remarks. The euro gained ground around 1.1700, supported by dollar softness despite disappointing German data, while ECB commentary had little market impact ahead of Tuesday’s Sintra Forum panel. The British pound held steady as UK GDP figures came in as expected. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened due to narrowing US-Japan yield spreads.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
