- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.85-33.895 this morning supportive level at 33.70 resistance level at 34.00
- SET Index: 1,340.9 (-0.97%), 27 Jan 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,012.3 (-1.47%), 27 Jan 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.288 (-1.68 bps), 27 Jan 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.53 (-10.0 bps), 27 Jan 2025
- US new home sales surpass expectations
- German business confidence unexpectedly rises in January
- China's DeepSeek triggers a downturn in the AI market
- China’s economy loses momentum ahead of major New Year holiday
- The US Dollar Index saw volatility early in the week due to AI news
US new home sales surpass expectations
New home sales rose 3.6% in December to 698,000, exceeding expectations. The median price was USD 427,000, and the average price was USD 513,600. Inventory stood at 494,000 homes, or 8.5 months of supply. Economists noted that unseasonably warm weather likely boosted sales, and buyers may be more resilient to 7% mortgage rates. They expect modest growth in 2025 as mortgage rates decrease, builders offer incentives, and the economy remains strong.
German business confidence unexpectedly rises in January
German business sentiment unexpectedly rose in January, boosted by a more positive view of the current economy. The Ifo index climbed to 85.1, surpassing expectations, while the current conditions index increased to 86.1. However, the expectations index dropped slightly, and many companies remain cautious due to uncertainty ahead of the elections.
China's DeepSeek triggers a downturn in the AI market
Technology stocks globally fell on Monday after a surge in popularity of a Chinese discount AI model raised concerns among investors about the AI sector's heavy reliance on high-tech chips. Startup DeepSeek launched a free assistant that reportedly uses cheaper chips and less data, potentially disrupting the market's expectation that AI will drive strong demand across the chipmaker-to-data center supply chain.
China’s economy loses momentum ahead of major New Year holiday
China’s factory activity unexpectedly weakened before the Lunar New Year holiday, and the services sector also showed signs of slowing, indicating that more fiscal stimulus may be required despite a recent boost. The official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1, the lowest since August, falling short of economists' expectations for modest growth. The non-manufacturing index, covering construction and services, decreased to 50.2.
The US Dollar Index saw volatility early in the week due to AI news
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.288, -1.68 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.28, -2.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.53, -10.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.73, moving in a range of 33.85 – 33.895 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.70 – 34.00 today. The dollar faced pressure, with the index briefly falling below 107.00 due to sharp losses in US stocks, which boosted demand for non-dollar safe-haven assets. This came as China's DeepSeek posed a challenge to US AI dominance at a lower cost. However, the DXY later recovered some losses as markets awaited upcoming risk events. The euro ended flat after briefly rising above the 1.0500 mark against the dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened as the risk-off sentiment drove safe-haven demand, briefly pushing USD/JPY below the 154.00 level.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
