Daily Market Insight

• Trade talks have returned to the main topic • Chicago PMI still indicates manufacturing contraction • German inflation cools to 2%, matching ECB target • Japan’s industrial production misses expectations due to US tariffs • Mixed Chinese PMIs in June • The dollar weakened at the start of the week

• US core PCE rose more than expected in May • Trump cuts trade talks with Canada amid digital tax dispute • Senate gives initial approval to Trump’s expansive tax and spending legislation • Slight inflation uptick in France and Spain not troubling ECB • Dollar rises as Trump sparks new trade worries

• Q1 GDP contracts further than expected • Most Fed officials oppose July rate cut • Von Der Leyen says EU prepared for breakdown in US trade talks • Tokyo inflation slows as energy prices ease before election • Dollar falls as Trump challenges Powell

• Trump eyes 3-4 candidates to replace Fed’s Powell • New home sales miss forecasts, signal slowdown • Europe wins over Trump on defense with NATO spending boost • Thailand holds rate at 1.75% and lifts 2025 growth forecast • Dollar struggles to regain footing

• Despite Trump’s ceasefire, both Israel and Iran reportedly violated it • Fed Chair Powell reiterated the post-FOMC stance but left policy options open • US consumer confidence stumbles, falls below forecast and previous figures • EU prepares to retaliate If US imposes baseline tariffs on bloc • Dollar retreats on ceasefire optimism

• Trump announces tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran • Fed's Bowman open to cutting rates at July policy meeting • US PMI slips slightly on softer services • Euro zone PMI stalls in June with sluggish services, manufacturing • UK PMI sees fastest growth since Trump tariffs • Dollar softens as markets weigh US-Iran tensions and Fed rate outlook

• US hits Iran nuclear sites, escalating conflict • Waller signals potential Fed rate cut in July • Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index remains in negative zone • UK retail sales see biggest monthly fall since 2023 • China holds loan prime rate steady in June • US Dollar holds steady on Friday

• Trump may decide on Iran strike in two weeks • Central banks split on handling global risks • Japan core inflation hits 2-year high, fuels rate hike expectations • UK consumer confidence rises, extending a ‘fragile’ rebound • Dollar holds firm but eases from highs amid holiday

• Fed holds key rate steady, still sees two more cuts this year • Trump concludes meeting, Iran strategy still unknown • UK inflation holds at highest in over a year before BOE vote • Thai exports hit 3-year high amid tariff talks • Indonesia holds rate to protect rupiah amid risks • Dollar firmed after Fed Chair Powell’s press conference

• Trump assembles security team amid tensions with Iran • US retail sales fall again amid tariff worries • US industrial output falls again, marking second drop in three months • BoJ maintains rates, signals slower cutback in bond buying • Dollar strengthens as Middle East conflict intensifies